The Reasons Middle Eastern Investment Hasn't Transformed The Magpies into Title Challengers

Eddie Howe isn't typically prone to dramatics or sweeping media statements. Based on his usual demeanor, his media briefing following Sunday’s loss to West Ham qualifies as a furious tirade. Newcastle scored first but West Ham were ahead by the interval, as well as striking the woodwork and having a penalty revoked by VAR, leading Howe to make a three substitutions at the half-time.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” the coach said. “Virtually any player could have been substituted and I believe that was a reflection of where we were at that stage in the game and it’s very, very rare for me to feel that way. Actually, I don’t think I have since I’ve been head coach of the club, so I felt the team required a significant change at the break. That’s why I did what I did.”

Three key players were substituted at the interval and Newcastle did stabilise to an extent in the latter period, but never appearing like they might fight back into the contest against a side that had won only one of their last nine fixtures. Considering the congestion the centre of the standings currently is, with just three points dividing the top spots from mid-table, and nine points between second and 17th, a run of twelve points from ten matches has not left the Magpies adrift but, equally, they cannot end the campaign in thirteenth place.

The Issue of Expectations

The problem to an extent is one of perception. With the Saudi PIF, the club possess the wealthiest backers in the globe. The expectation when the Saudi fund bought 80% of the team in 2021 was that it would have a transformative effect, similar to the former Chelsea owner achieved at Stamford Bridge or the City Group did at the Etihad. The difference is that those two owners took over prior to the advent of FFP rules (while the current allegations against Manchester City concern if they breached those regulations after they were in place).

Profit and sustainability restrictions restrict the capacity of owners, however rich, to spend money on their squads and therefore likely might have slowed every Saudi attempt to raise Newcastle to the level of City. But there is no need for Newcastle’s spending to have been quite as cautious as it has; they could have invested further and stayed inside the threshold – or simply taken a relatively meagre European fine given their major problem is more with the continental than the Premier League rules.

Infrastructure Spending and PSR Rules

Additionally, stadium development is excluded from Profit and Sustainability calculations; the easiest method to increase revenue to create additional financial headroom would be to expand or redevelop the stadium. Given the site of the home ground, with listed buildings on two sides, practically that likely means building an completely new venue. There was talk in March of potentially making the nearby relocation to Leazes Park – opposition from local groups could surely have been overcome with a promise to create a new park on the existing stadium site – but there has not been no movement on that plan. There has been significant retrenchment from the PIF on a variety of initiatives as it refocuses on domestic affairs; the attitude to Newcastle appears entirely in alignment with that change of approach.

Player Sales Saga

The Alexander Isak episode was born of that tension. A bolder leadership might have framed his sale as necessary to free up funds for further investment; rather there was a vain attempt to keep him. This resulted in the team started the campaign amidst a sense of disappointment despite the acquisitions of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The opening was indifferent: a single victory in their first six fixtures.

But it appeared a turning point had been turned. They had won five in six before the weekend, a streak that featured convincing wins of a Belgian side and Benfica in the Champions League. That’s why the display against the Hammers was so surprising. The problem perhaps is that the team's style is extremely intense, very high-octane; a minor decrease in energy can have profound consequences. Maybe the pressure of Premier League, European and Carabao Cup matches, five fixtures in 15 days, had taken its toll. Woltemade started all five matches and appeared especially fatigued.

Reality of Modern Football

That’s the reality of today's football. Coaches have to be ready to make changes. The manager has been unlucky that the forward's injury has left him short of forward choices but, no matter how reasonable the explanations, the weekend's performance was unacceptable –especially after scoring first at a stadium primed to turn on its home team.

The Newcastle boss will hope it was merely a temporary setback, one of those days when everybody is off-colour simultaneously, but if Newcastle are to qualify for the European competition next season, let alone eventually mount an actual title challenge, they must not be as unreliable as they have been.